When Will Wano Act 3 End? BETTING THREAD

What will happen in the next chapter of One Piece? Share your predictions here!

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Marco Polo
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Having this discussion in @seiryu’s theory thread and i thought it’d be a fun game for VCC users to get involved in.

Basically - what chapter number do you think Wano Act 3 will end on? Stick some VCC cash on it!

How to bet

- Make your prediction
- Tell us how much VCCash you want to put on the prediction (VCCash bets can range from 1.00 VCCash to all the cash in your bank account)
- If you predict correctly, you will win 5x the amount you originally bet.
- If you make the bet after a leak announces the end of Wano Act 3, your bet will not count.
- Tag @Marco Polo in your post so he can record everyone’s bets.
- ONE BET PER PERSON. You can’t place money on every single chapter number between now and chapter 2000.
- However - if the chapter you have bet on passes and Act 3 is still ongoing, you may place a new bet once you have paid out your bet amount.
- All unsuccessful bet transactions are payable to @Void Century Club

Here’s a quick example of how to do it:

Example bet wrote:
@Marco Polo I bet 420.69VCCash that Wano Act 3 will end on Chapter 1050

Happy betting!


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@Marco Polo I bet 35 Vbucks that Act 3 ends on Chapter 1026.


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seiryu
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Am I exempt from betting?! I don't think I am since VCCash is just personal stuff.

@Marco Polo I bet 1,015 VCCash on chapter 1015.


Back to the blind Oda faith (until the next B.S. of course).
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Marco Polo
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seiryu wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 7:38 am
Am I exempt from betting?!

You are not. I’m also going to bet.

@Marco Polo I will bet 1,018 VCCash on Chapter 1,018


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@Marco Polo Ohh nice thread. I like the idea of a bet. I think it’s chapter1015 based on the numbers of the previous Acts. I’m putting 2500 VCC on it. Please. ^_^


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I have been robbed blind, so @Marco Polo I will bet a measly 100 VCC that Act 3 will end on Chapter 1030


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seiryu
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Awww...c'mon Weeby. Why you gotta get my competitive side going?!

I've got zero shame, so I have zero problem airing my grievances in public. I purposefully responded early to let others join in on the casual gambling, but the jeopardy fan in me can't overlook the what appears to be a blatant competition for the richest user. Since competitive betting is meant to be private, are you OK with a one time PM for updates @Marco Polo?

I personally think even MM should be given the opportunity to update his bet if he wants.

And now that I'm analyzing this with my gambler mindset, I'm going to make a likely necessary suggestion. Since this is time and info based, the line/payback has to change over time. If this week is a 5:1 payout, this has to decrease. 4:1 next week with a potential further decrease depending on the content of the chapter. Depending on the content, a higher/lower rate of change could occur. In theory, the line could have a higher payout if something unexpected happens. On the flip side, something could make it undeniable that the act is going to end (and a sudden drop to a crazy ratio like 0.00001:1). I think sports caps at 10,000:1 on the positive payout, but if something like all the crew nakama get captured and the arc does not end, something even lower like 0.00000001:1 might have to happen. This has to be emphasized now because the line is based on the current plot information available.

Further, if we are trying to maximize participation, something similar to buying points on the line is probably necessary. The one bet limitation is going to scare most people off. The loophole around this is the ability to buy multiple bets at a decreased payout. It is all statistics, so there should be a steady decrease to the payout rate as the number of guesses. So something like 1 guess is 5:1, 2 guesses 4.5:1, 3 guesses 4:1, etc. Yes, massive guesses can be an option, but the payout is so little that essentially the person loses money on the number of bets.

The loophole would have to be set now since the absolute update of time sensitivity/information sensitivity is the biggest determination of fairness.


Back to the blind Oda faith (until the next B.S. of course).
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Marco Polo
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seiryu wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:24 am
Since competitive betting is meant to be private, are you OK with a one time PM for updates @Marco Polo?

if you and weeby want to bet with each other outside of this thread, go ahead. as long as you can afford the payouts should your bet be wrong


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hi @WeebyWitch @seiryu,

As chapter 1015 has just passed and Wano Act 3 is still ongoing, you must make your bet payable to @Void Century Club (do not worry about the 5% transfer fee, just send the amount you’ve bet).

Since your bet is officially no longer active, you may place a new bet (I will amend the rules to reflect this because I forgot to mention this).


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There were a lot of words added to this thread and I didn’t read them all because I’m just taking a quick break in my anime episode (honestly, I only ever read the first post initially, did some web research and then placed my bet)... :ohno: but I need to know, do I pay 2500 VCC or did I lose more than that?Okay I’m back... I’ve read the entire thread now (phew). I’m not going to claim to understand half of the gambling jargon but Umm... sorry @seiryu I wasn’t trying to step on your toes there. I honestly googled and found and old OP Reddit post because I was too lazy to check the chapters for when the acts started and ended. Then I picked an arbitrary number to bet. *shrug* What anyone else bets doesn’t matter to me at all. If I wanted to be the richest user, I wouldn’t buy so much in the shop all the time...? I don’t get it lol

I really don’t understand gambling as I don’t do it IRL, that’s your thing. I’m just playing around. Not trying to be competitive about it or anything at all. But it’s nifty that we came up with the same answer. Like can’t we just smile about the fact that we were in agreement? ^_^

So @Marco Polo I paid out 2500. If that’s not enough, let me know. As I said, I wasn’t clear on if I somehow lost more than I bet? Didn’t think that was possible but I haven’t slept well so... I’m going to go check something really quickly. Then see about placing a second bet.


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