Awww...c'mon Weeby. Why you gotta get my competitive side going?!
I've got zero shame, so I have zero problem airing my grievances in public. I purposefully responded early to let others join in on the casual gambling, but the jeopardy fan in me can't overlook the what appears to be a blatant competition for the richest user. Since competitive betting is meant to be private, are you OK with a one time PM for updates Marco Polo?
I personally think even MM should be given the opportunity to update his bet if he wants.
And now that I'm analyzing this with my gambler mindset, I'm going to make a likely necessary suggestion. Since this is time and info based, the line/payback has to change over time. If this week is a 5 payout, this has to decrease. 4 next week with a potential further decrease depending on the content of the chapter. Depending on the content, a higher/lower rate of change could occur. In theory, the line could have a higher payout if something unexpected happens. On the flip side, something could make it undeniable that the act is going to end (and a sudden drop to a crazy ratio like 0.00001). I think sports caps at 10,000 on the positive payout, but if something like all the crew nakama get captured and the arc does not end, something even lower like 0.00000001 might have to happen. This has to be emphasized now because the line is based on the current plot information available.
Further, if we are trying to maximize participation, something similar to buying points on the line is probably necessary. The one bet limitation is going to scare most people off. The loophole around this is the ability to buy multiple bets at a decreased payout. It is all statistics, so there should be a steady decrease to the payout rate as the number of guesses. So something like 1 guess is 5, 2 guesses 4.5, 3 guesses 4, etc. Yes, massive guesses can be an option, but the payout is so little that essentially the person loses money on the number of bets.
The loophole would have to be set now since the absolute update of time sensitivity/information sensitivity is the biggest determination of fairness.