Ah, I've missed this. You know I don't take Oda himself and his writing habits and such into account much when I theorize about stuff, at least not this conceretely. So this is nice to see.
I like the general assumption of the theory and agree with it so not much to add really. I think you're spot on with the end of act 3 at the very least because Luffy's "defeat" is a very fitting milestone for it, so I'm all for that scenario. Personally I'm hoping for something like: act 3 ending at chapter 120~ and act 4 at 150~ (30~ chapters long) but I don't really have anything to support that though, just a personal wish for more content.
Overanalysis over multiple years guarantees the ability to pick up on Oda's patterns. And the literary perfection jumps out because things just fit perfectly (the fun of the combined theory).
As a fan, I 100% that the greater volume of content is better. I do think this is an exception because of how impatient all of the fans are getting (including myself).
I didn't mention this in the theory, but the anime opening foreshadowing Luffy falling into the ocean and "overcoming the impossible" situation astronomically changes my view of Oda (assuming it isn't just a coincidence that someone on the anime team just came up with it and Oda just okayed it since he was still doing 50-50 B.S.) because it means Oda was planning the correction and had a great feint of running with the B.S. to create even more drama/impact. Although it is messed up to purposefully create fake hope, since it was already started...I guess it makes sense to see it through. But if Oda made the decision to go back to Oda levels of connectivity/believability WAAAAAAAYYYYY back when the new Wano Kuni opening was made, this is a return back to truly Oda writing where things are planned waaaaaaaaayyyyyy in advance.
So the biggest aspect is that Oda cannot stick to this pace for the rest of the series. If Oda is serious/back on track, he is going to want to fill in every minor detail, which is what the fans want. And this includes the casual fans that only unconsciously appreciate literary perfection and piece the major pieces together as the plot is presented.>
Ooh this is QUICK indeed. The real question is whether Oda can wrap up all the other fights going on in that time? Luffy vs. Kaido would surely be the “finale” to all the Wano action?
The thing that came to mind...is a bigger tragedy than I want to believe. I.E. everyone stays captured. And by everyone I mean EVERYONE. Law, Killer, every crew nakama, etc. Maybe the only person that has to be saved contextually is Momo. Both Kaidou and Orochi want Momo dead relatively ASAP.
So the loophole is that a grand execution is being planned while Luffy gets trained. We will still get the other 1v1 and hopefully 2v2 (and not 2v1 with Brook and Robin vs. Maria) because Kaidou has to be defeated to save everyone from the execution. Luffy will be too fatigued to help with the remaining fights, and contextually, the rest of the execs, Tobi Roppou, and even Gifters have to be defeated. It is fully possible that defeating the powerhouses make all of the Gifters and Pleasures just flee since Zoro, Jinbei, and Sanji alone would be enough to take on potentially all of them. This is on the assumption they go through the necessary power up from the climax fight (and technically Zoro had his already, Jinbei is at that level per my bias, and Sanji just needs one factor of proficiency of the Raid Suit or activation of his Germa 66 gene mutations ).>
I don’t know how arc beginnings/endings usually line up with volumes, but if Oda’s going as far as 17-20 chapters I imagine he’d just end it in 102? We could get a nice Luffy vs. Kaido showdown cover for it as well.
That's WAAAAAYYY too thick. Oda has negotiated to not change the price of the longer volumes either (which is the push back because there is a lower profit margin and potentially a loss on the longer volumes). From a business standpoint, having fewer chapters per volume means better business since One Piece is going to sell no matter what so the more volumes the better.
Off the top of my head, I think the longest One Piece volume is 14 chapters. I think we had a few at 12 chapters, and especially recently. Oda never ends a volume without a cliffhanger, and we've only had one or two un-Oda-like cliffhangers.
In the first 15ish years of the series, the end of an arc was matching up with volumes. And most of this was on the dot (so especially crazy with volumes only varying at nine to 11 chapters). Only recently has there been deviations to have a few chapters of the next arc after or before the end/start of the volume (again off the top of my head).
Oda could possibly pull off a 17-20 chapter volume, but I think the price has to go up at least partially if not double. >
This would be VERY quick - it’d make act 4 shorter than act 1 if we’re saying act 1 ends anywhere from 1015-1017. I feel like he’s got too many ends to wrap up to do it this quickly. I’d say 1035ish, which would come around the end of the year, would give him just the right amount of time to end the fighting quick-ish, but flesh out the fights enough that they don’t feel rushed.
Hmm, maybe we should do a guessing game for when people think Wano will end?
Act four is almost always the shortest act, so that's further proof then.
Act five is going to be long because of the likely majority of climax fights. The triple cover spread doesn't match/fit if Luffy wins in volume 102 or 103. Luffy is clearly the center and focus of the cover spread, and this needs to be negated by volume 100 with Luffy falling into the ocean. It fits too perfectly and only has negative results if it does not go this way.
The main aspect is the flip flop of the "main card fight". This further helps to highlight the jump to Yonkou/admiral level. This should be the only arc where we get the Luffy fight first, and it will have to be the direct result of the tragedy. This creates the other fights to not be rushed, and the fights are still necessary to free Wano Kuni.
And I'm 100% for a prediction contest! People are driven by VCCash so anything to promote activity is worth it! We have two participants with Yuz and myself (assuming Yuz doesn't want to change his estimate).